Robinhood Markets Inc. is getting ready to take its prediction markets enterprise worldwide. The buying and selling platform has began talks with regulators within the UK and different nations about launching the service outdoors the US.
The transfer comes after huge success within the American market. CEO Vlad Tenev introduced on September 29, 2025, that the platform crossed four billion occasion contracts traded. The corporate began providing election contracts in October 2024, then formally launched its prediction markets hub in March 2025. Greater than 2 billion of these contracts occurred within the third quarter of 2025 alone.
File Buying and selling Volumes Drive Inventory Surge
The prediction markets announcement despatched Robinhood’s inventory hovering. Shares jumped greater than 12% on September 30, giving the corporate a market worth of round $108 billion. The inventory has climbed over 260% in 2025.
Supply: @vladTenev
Wall Avenue took discover. Needham raised its price target to $145 from $120, calling Robinhood essentially the most superior platform working to develop into a one-stop monetary store. Piper Sandler and Citi additionally lifted their targets, exhibiting rising confidence within the firm’s route.
The enterprise already generates vital revenue. Analysts estimate the prediction markets section is working at greater than $200 million in annual income based mostly on September exercise. Robinhood costs $0.01 per contract, plus change charges, creating a gentle income stream as buying and selling volumes develop.
Breaking Into Worldwide Markets
JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s vp of futures and worldwide, revealed the corporate has begun discussions with the UK’s Monetary Conduct Authority. The purpose is determining learn how to construction prediction markets merchandise for native laws.
“It’s a swap right here in the US,” Mackenzie defined in an interview. “So the query could be the place is swap oversight, let’s say within the UK? That’s a query that we’ve been asking the FCA, how will we work it?”
The problem is classification. American regulators deal with prediction markets as futures contracts, overseen by the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee. European regulators typically view them as playing merchandise, making a regulatory puzzle Robinhood wants to resolve.
The corporate already operates within the UK and European Union since 2023, providing inventory and cryptocurrency buying and selling. This current presence provides Robinhood relationships with regulators and expertise navigating worldwide guidelines.
Mackenzie confirmed the worldwide ambition: “We’re positively trying to supply it globally, and my purpose or focus is to ensure it’s a regulatory-compliant product all over the place we go.”
How Prediction Markets Work
Robinhood launched its prediction markets hub in March 2025. The platform lets customers purchase and promote contracts on future occasions, from soccer video games to financial information releases.
Every contract prices between $0.01 and $0.99, representing the chance an occasion will occur. A contract priced at $0.65 suggests a 65% probability the occasion happens. In case you’re proper, the contract pays $1 when the occasion settles. If mistaken, it expires nugatory.
The platform began with Federal Reserve price choices and faculty basketball tournaments. By August, Robinhood added skilled and faculty soccer contracts, tapping into America’s hottest sport. Classes now embody sports activities, economics, cryptocurrency, and cultural occasions.
Robinhood companions with KalshiEX LLC, a CFTC-regulated change, to supply these contracts. The setup separates Robinhood from offshore platforms by staying inside US regulatory frameworks.
Competitors Heats Up
The prediction markets area is getting crowded quick. Polymarket, beforehand banned from US operations, obtained regulatory clearance to return. The crypto-based platform acquired an change license and is concentrating on American customers with soccer betting contracts.
Kalshi has overtaken Polymarket in buying and selling quantity, processing $728 million in bets throughout one week in September. Football accounts for over 70% of Kalshi’s exercise. Robinhood customers characterize 25% to 35% of Kalshi’s day by day buying and selling, in keeping with analyst estimates.
Conventional playing corporations are becoming a member of the push. FanDuel introduced a partnership with CME Group to launch prediction markets. Underdog Sports activities teamed with Crypto.com to supply sports activities contracts in 16 states. Even DraftKings is exploring choices.
The stakes are huge. The US sports activities betting trade generated $13.7 billion in income final 12 months. Business projections recommend that quantity might hit $39 billion by 2030. Prediction markets need a piece of that development.
Current funding rounds present investor urge for food. Polymarket raised $200 million at a $1 billion valuation in June 2025. In the future later, Kalshi secured $185 million at a $2 billion valuation. Stories recommend Polymarket obtained a takeover supply valuing the corporate at $9 billion, whereas Kalshi might elevate cash at a $5 billion valuation.
Why Abroad Enlargement Makes Sense
Worldwide growth provides Robinhood respiration room as competitors intensifies at house. The corporate constructed its model on making financial markets accessible to on a regular basis individuals. Prediction markets match that mission.
The enterprise helps Robinhood cut back dependence on inventory buying and selling commissions. Occasion contracts present transaction charges no matter market situations. Mixed with cryptocurrency, futures, and other products, the corporate builds a number of revenue sources.
Customers overseas have proven curiosity, in keeping with Robinhood. Europe and the UK characterize main potential markets the place the corporate already has regulatory approval for different merchandise.
The regulatory path gained’t be easy. Some European nations strictly regulate playing, whereas others preserve looser frameworks. Every market requires separate negotiations and compliance work. However the potential rewards seem definitely worth the effort.
The Backside Line
Robinhood’s prediction markets enterprise went from zero to four billion contracts in lower than a 12 months. That development caught Wall Avenue’s consideration and pushed the inventory to new highs. Now the corporate needs to copy that success internationally.
Success relies on convincing international regulators these merchandise are monetary devices, not playing. With talks already underway within the UK and expertise working abroad, Robinhood has a head begin. However rivals aren’t standing nonetheless, and the race for world prediction markets is simply starting.
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