Arthur Hayes is making a high-conviction guess on Hyperliquid, arguing in a brand new essay that HYPE may climb to $150 by August 2026 even when the broader crypto backdrop stays weak. His case rests on a well-known exchange-token playbook, however up to date for a market the place decentralized perps, not centralized venues, are more and more capturing essentially the most worthwhile buying and selling circulate.
Why Hayes Thinks Hyperliquid Can Attain $150
Hayes frames Hyperliquid because the standout asset in a sluggish or sideways market as a result of exchanges can keep generating fees no matter whether or not costs are rising. In his telling, that issues much more for Hyperliquid as a result of 97% of protocol income is used to buy back HYPE from the market. “Hyperliquid, the dominant perp DEX, is the biggest revenue-generating undertaking that isn’t a stablecoin,” he wrote. “No different undertaking in all of crypto arms as a lot a reimbursement to token holders as Hyperliquid.”
His goal implies roughly a 5x transfer from about $30 on the time of writing. To get there, Hayes says Hyperliquid would want to raise 30-day annualized income to $1.Four billion, a degree he says the platform beforehand reached in August final yr. His mannequin additionally assumes the market will rerate the token from round 12 instances earnings to roughly 25.2 instances, nonetheless under or close to the vary he cites for main conventional alternate names.
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A big a part of the thesis is that Hyperliquid doesn’t want an total enlargement in crypto derivatives exercise to develop. It solely must preserve taking share from centralized exchanges. Hayes argues {that a} 3.97 percentage-point improve in market share can be sufficient for Hyperliquid to return to that $1.Four billion annualized income run fee.
The engine for that subsequent leg, in his view, is HIP-3, Hyperliquid’s permissionless perpetuals itemizing framework. Customers who stake 500,000 HYPE can launch markets utilizing the platform’s matching and margin engine, and Hayes factors to early traction in silver, gold, the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500. “In solely 4 months, HIP-3 volumes account for near 10% of whole Hyperliquid revenues,” he wrote. “Permissionless listings had been at all times the holy grail of DEXs, and the speedy progress in buying and selling volumes proves that is how Hyperliquid will differentiate itself from the pack.”
That’s the reason his mannequin assumes HIP-Three income rises 160% over six months. He additionally flags HIP-4, which he says ought to allow permissionless prediction markets, as a attainable upside kicker not included within the base case.
Competitors is the principle objection Hayes tries to neutralize. He argues that headline volumes throughout perp DEXs could be distorted by wash buying and selling, factors farming and different incentives, making uncooked quantity a poor measure of actual utilization.
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His most popular metric is ADV-to-OI, or common day by day quantity relative to open curiosity, as a result of open curiosity requires actual capital to be posted. On that foundation, he says Hyperliquid has essentially the most “actual” quantity among the many prime 5 perp DEXs. He additionally says order-book snapshots for Bitcoin perps confirmed Hyperliquid was often the most affordable place to execute dimension as soon as slippage was included.
Hayes additionally spend time on token provide overhang, one other challenge that had made him tactically bearish late final yr. He notes that the crew distributed near 20% of awarded tokens in November and December, however solely about 1% in January and February. “With that out of the best way, the crew drastically diminished distributions as a way to assist HYPE rebound,” he wrote, whereas acknowledging that this half is speculative.
Even his stress case stays constructive. Hayes says that if the market solely pays a 12x earnings a number of and the crew receives 9.91 million HYPE monthly, however income nonetheless recovers to $1.Four billion annualized, the token would nonetheless be price about $58, or roughly 75% above present ranges.
At press time, HYPE traded at $33.237.
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