Lithium costs stay close to their highest level within the final 12 months, however the listed battery-tech inventory commerce shouldn’t be transferring as strongly.
Lithium carbonate prices had been holding up at one-year highs on April 24, with the TradingEconomics chart indicating the commodity at 173,000 CNY per ton. The one-year chart sample exhibits a powerful restoration from the mid-2025 lows of 60,000-70,000 CNY/T and a pointy acceleration into late 2025 and early 2026. The cycle noticed costs briefly transfer above 180,000 CNY/T and is at present under this stage.
Meaning lithium is in an excellent place on the longer-term chart. The market construction has modified from an extended base to an uptrend with increased highs and better lows in a lot of the final six months. The latest transfer additionally suggests patrons are nonetheless holding the higher vary—a retrace of the rally shouldn’t be underway.
Analyst Factors: 120% Surge In Lithium Carbonate
In a publish on X, Steve Hanke mentioned the Wall Road Journal reported lithium carbonate costs have elevated by over 120% within the final six months. He additionally attributed the transfer to the demand for batteries within the synthetic intelligence (AI) knowledge trade and mentioned the rising demand for energy is driving lithium demand.
The form of his publish seems like a value chart. The quickest leg of the rally began late in 2025 with lithium carbonate decisively breaking out above the 100,000 CNY/T stage after which accelerating to the 160,000 to 180,000 CNY/T vary. The commodity stays excessive regardless of a few corrections.
The TradingEconomics one-year chart additionally reveals that the market has shrugged off one or two corrections to stay firmly within the bull camp. Every correction has introduced the commodity again to the 140,000 to 160,000 CNY/T band, after which it has rebounded to new highs, with the most recent studying at 173,000 CNY/T holding lithium up across the high of that band.
Lithium ETFs Are Flatter Than the Commodity Itself
The short-term outlook is much less frothy in equities. The International X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT) was at $83.62, or 0.05% decrease for the session on the TradingView chart. The intraday value vary remained tight, with the ETF buying and selling across the $83.60-$83.85 zone, somewhat than making a powerful push above.
The quantity was additionally skinny on the newest TradingView chart, with solely 5 models displayed. These decrease ranges of exercise are according to the ETF buying and selling in a variety whereas ready for a clearer pattern.
That distinction issues. On the one hand, pure lithium carbonate remains to be buying and selling on the high of its vary. On the opposite aspect, the ETF is holding regular after its earlier surge and is not displaying the identical short-term momentum. The value candles depict a mixture of small beneficial properties and losses, which is a sign of consolidation.
ETF Momentum Has Weakened; MACD Exhibits
The ETF’s momentum additionally weakened. In line with TradingView, the MACD line was 0.0653, lower than the sign line of 0.1130, and the histogram was -0.0477. This maintains damaging short-term momentum regardless of the worth being close to new highs.
Put one other means, the commodity remains to be more healthy than the ETF. Lithium carbonate remains to be in a long-term uptrend, and the ETF is cooling off. The ETF’s near-term assist is at $83.50, with resistance at $83.80 to $84.00.
The charts stay a relative story of two speeds for now. The lithium carbonate value remains to be near its better of the 12 months on the again of a powerful six-month rally. The lithium/battery-tech ETF is, nonetheless, taking issues extra slowly, with value holding however momentum impartial.
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