Bitcoin’s return to $100,000 is still a popular target throughout the marketplace for 2026, however one bearish outlook argues that the transfer is turning into much less reasonable with the price action weakening beneath the $80,000 worth degree.
This bearish outlook came from a crypto analyst generally known as Alex Mason on the social media platform X, who predicted that Bitcoin is not going to hit the $100,000 worth degree once more this yr as a result of its worth motion is in a managed lure inside an ascending channel.
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Bitcoin’s Ascending Channel Might Have Been A Lure
Bitcoin has not traded above $100,000 in 2026 and with the calendar now virtually in the course of the yr, the timeframe for a restoration above six figures is shrinking fast. The worth motion over the previous two months has as a substitute been outlined by an ascending channel, with Bitcoin forming gradual increased highs and better lows from its February low simply above $60,000. The higher boundary has acted as resistance a number of occasions, whereas the inexperienced decrease trendline has served as the principle help holding the restoration alive.
Nevertheless, that very same channel is pointing to a bearish argument. An ascending channel can look bullish on the floor as a result of worth is transferring increased, however it will possibly additionally grow to be a distribution construction when every push upward loses momentum. In line with Mason, Bitcoin’s sluggish rise contained in the channel has created faux power, giving retail merchants the impression {that a} breakout again to $100,000 remains to be constructing.
The vital second that exposed the faux power was the move into the $82,000 CME hole. Bitcoin reached that CME hole in early Might, accomplished the goal, after which was rejected a number of occasions between Might 6 and Might 11. This was a textbook lure before the next leg down.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @AlexMasonCrypto On X
Bitcoin’s Odds Of Hitting $100,000 In 2026
As proven within the chart above, Bitcoin is returning to the decrease half of the channel, placing the inexperienced help line below stress. If that help breaks, the construction would now not seem like a gradual restoration and the start of a push to a brand new backside.
The primary stage to a brand new backside is a breakdown from the ascending channel. From there, the following goal is round $70,000, adopted by a deeper move to new lows at $60,000. The chart even extends the bearish path deeper, with a dotted projection transferring down to as low as $50,000 by early July.
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A rally to $100,000 would require confidence, liquidity, and powerful follow-through above resistance above $82,000. Bitcoin may also have to reclaim the 200-day MA round this identical degree. In line with prediction market Kalshi, there’s only a 32% chance that the Bitcoin worth will break above $100,000 once more earlier than January 2027.
Featured picture from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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