The word, based mostly on suggestions from a Chinese language lithium marketing consultant, stated market tightness might construct into the fourth quarter of 2026.
Lithium’s restoration is gaining contemporary consideration after a Goldman Sachs analysis word pointed to tighter situations forming in China’s battery provide chain.
Worth charts shared by Juan Carlos Zuleta additionally confirmed a stronger short-term transfer. Battery-grade lithium carbonate has moved again above $25,000 per ton, whereas China’s most actively traded futures contract rose once more on June 12.
Goldman Notice Flags 4Q26 Tightness
The Goldman research note stated the 2026 lithium demand-supply setup seems much like the 2020 and 2021 market construction. That interval marked the ultimate stage of the earlier downcycle earlier than costs recovered strongly.
In accordance with the word, lithium carbonate costs fell towards business cost-support ranges within the first half of 2025. Commerce struggle strain and weaker demand added to that decline, however the marketing consultant now expects each pricing and supply-demand stability to reverse by 2026.
Tightness is anticipated to change into clearer within the fourth quarter. Vitality storage system demand stays a key driver, whereas provide development continues to lag.
China mine pauses linked to license renewals additionally stay a supply-side issue. Furthermore, coverage uncertainty in Africa and refining constraints might add strain if restocking accelerates later within the yr.
Carbonate Costs Rebound Above $25Ok
Zuleta stated spot lithium carbonate has surpassed $25,000 per ton as of June 12. The shared chart positioned VAT-included battery-grade lithium carbonate at $25,138.59 per ton, whereas the VAT-excluded worth stood close to $22,246.54 per ton.
The one-month price chart nonetheless reveals lithium under mid-Might ranges, however the newest candles point out a transparent rebound from the early-June low. Worth moved from close to the decrease a part of the vary again towards $25,000, marking a short-term restoration after a number of weeks of strain.
Zuleta additionally famous that lithium carbonate is up 47% year-to-date and 202% from the second main backside. The present transfer additionally marks the fifth straight day of rising and secure costs, based on his submit.
That restoration matches the market narrative within the Goldman word. After an extended downcycle, spot costs at the moment are responding to expectations of tighter provide, stronger battery demand, and renewed restocking.
Futures Strengthen in Contango
China’s LC2609 futures contract additionally rose on the shut of buying and selling. The contract completed at RMB175,300 per ton, up RMB3,940, or 2.30%, on June 12.
Intraday knowledge confirmed a gap worth of RMB176,000, a excessive of RMB178,740, and a low of RMB174,600. Turnover reached RMB34.79 billion, whereas open curiosity stood at 447,123.
The Goldman word stated restocking might carry fourth-quarter lithium carbonate costs towards RMB200,000 per ton. It additionally talked about upside towards roughly RMB250,000 per ton, though that stage was described as onerous to maintain as vitality storage clients change into extra price-sensitive.
At present trade ranges, Zuleta stated RMB250,000 per ton would equal about $37,000 per ton. That might place costs close to his earlier forecast vary of $20,000 to $25,000 over two years, adopted by a transfer towards $40,000 later.
For now, lithium’s newest worth motion reveals a market shifting away from its latest lows. The following check is whether or not spot energy, futures positive factors, and restocking demand can carry the rebound into the fourth quarter.
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