A month-to-month candle up greater than 10% has bounced bitcoin off the decrease band of the Logarithmic Progress Curve, the long-run mannequin that marked the final two cycle bottoms. The chart poses two questions – will the ground maintain, and is the tip of the Bitcoin bear market in sight? Lets discover out.
After a primary half of 2026 most holders would fairly overlook, bitcoin is doing one thing chartists have been ready months for: bouncing off a line drawn eight years in the past.
The chart comes from Dave the Wave, the pseudonymous technical analyst whose Logarithmic Growth Curve has grow to be one of many extra sturdy long-term frameworks in a subject plagued by discarded ones. Printed Tuesday on TradingView, his month-to-month bitcoin chart exhibits the present candle buying and selling round $64,443, up roughly 10% on the month, after dipping to a low close to $57,750. That low landed virtually precisely on the decrease inexperienced band of his curve.
The Logarithmic Progress Curve, Supply: X
The Logarithmic Progress Curve, which Dave has drawn unchanged since 2018, fashions bitcoin’s value as a large channel of explosive however diminishing progress: monumental early beneficial properties that taper because the asset matures towards eventual value discovery. The underside band of that channel is what he calls the “purchase zone,” the extent at which, in his framing, the pragmatic long-term investor places cash to work. The higher band has twice marked cycle peaks. The decrease band has twice marked bottoms, in March 2020 and once more in November 2022.
July 2026 is shaping up because the third such check. In a notice to subscribers two weeks in the past, Dave noticed that value had returned to take a seat on, or very close to, the curve, the identical setup that preceded the earlier two recoveries. The 2 measured containers on the chart, every spanning twelve month-to-month bars, invite the comparability straight: the 2022 assist check got here on far heavier quantity, 11.21 million, than the present retest at 4.28 million. That quieter strategy matches his broader thesis that macro volatility ought to shrink because the market matures.
For believers within the mannequin, the learn is simple. The roughly 50% drawdown from October 2025’s report close to $126,000 is shallower than the 75% to 90% collapses that ended earlier cycles. The correction has carried value again to structural assist. And a double-digit month-to-month candle suggests patrons are defending it. Prolonged ahead, the curve factors towards one thing like $140,000 to $200,000 by the tip of the last decade, and on Dave’s longer arc, a $500,000 to $1 million bitcoin inside about ten years, although with returns that compress cycle over cycle fairly than repeating the early moonshots.
The mannequin just isn’t gospel, and Dave can be among the many first to say so. Bitcoin closed a full week beneath its 200-week transferring common in late June for the primary time since 2023, the sort of long-term pattern break that has traditionally proven up solely within the deepest bear markets. A curve drawn by hand might be redrawn, and assist solely counts as soon as it holds. Bitcoin was nonetheless altering fingers within the low $60,000s on Tuesday, a chop that leaves the retest unresolved fairly than confirmed.
Bitcoin is up 4% in a single day, Supply: Brave New Coin
Even so, for a market that spent June watching a 21-month low, the truth that the controversy has shifted from how a lot decrease as to whether the ground holds is itself a change of tone. As we famous when bitcoin rebounded from oversold levels earlier this month, the tape has discovered some footing. Dave’s curve is the place the bulls will argue that footing was all the time meant to be.
Put the items collectively and the chart makes a selected argument: that this bear market is nearer to its finish than its center. Almost each marker that has traditionally accompanied a backside is current directly. Worth has fallen again to the identical purchase zone that closed out the 2020 and 2022 declines. The retest is arriving on lighter quantity, the signature of sellers operating dry fairly than recent capitulation. The drawdown is shallower than in previous cycles, according to a market that corrects much less violently because it matures. And the primary month-to-month candle to kind on the band has closed up greater than 10%, the sort of reversal that has marked turns earlier than. None of that ensures the low is in, and a decisive break again beneath the curve would negate the setup. However on the logic of the mannequin, this appears to be like way more just like the closing stretch of a bear market than the opening of a deeper one. Is the Bitcoin bear market over? Not fairly, however maybe the tip is sight.
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