On-chain data from Glassnode reveals a major shift in whale positioning, including to an more and more cautious technical outlook.
BTC traded close to $74,704 on Bitstamp, down roughly 1.45% on the newest obtainable studying. The decline adopted a weekly shut round $74,968, beneath the 50-week shifting common (MA), which stood between roughly $75,200 and $75,500. The transfer ended a seven-week streak above the indicator and marked Bitcoin’s first weekly shut beneath it in roughly two months.
Glassnode Exhibits Hyperliquid Whales Rising Bitcoin Shorts
Glassnode knowledge signifies that enormous merchants on Hyperliquid have shifted their Bitcoin perpetual futures positioning from internet lengthy to internet quick. The change occurred roughly two weeks in the past, ending a seven-month interval throughout which these merchants maintained a predominantly bullish place.
Hyperliquid whales have elevated Bitcoin perpetual shorts, flipping their internet positioning quick two weeks in the past after seven months lengthy. Supply: Glassnode by way of X
The 24-hour imply internet positioning metric, which measures the distinction between lengthy and quick publicity, reveals that bearish positions have continued to extend. Brief publicity has now reached its highest degree since October 2025.
The historic comparability provides one other layer of concern. The final time Hyperliquid whales maintained a comparable degree of quick publicity, Bitcoin skilled a substantial worth decline. Though historic positioning doesn’t set up that one other selloff will observe, the most recent knowledge highlights rising warning amongst massive derivatives merchants.
The shift additionally coincides with Bitcoin’s failure to take care of help above the 50-week MA. Collectively, the derivatives positioning and weakening worth construction counsel that enormous merchants have gotten extra defensive because the market searches for help.
Bitcoin Worth Breaks Under 50-Week Transferring Common
Bitcoin’s weekly shut close to $74,968 positioned the asset beneath its 50-week MA, estimated at $75,200–$75,500. Based on market commentary shared by AshCrypto, the breakdown ended a seven-week interval above the indicator.
Bitcoin closed the week at roughly $74,968, breaking beneath the 50-week MA for the primary time in two months and ending a seven-week streak above it. Supply: @AshCrypto by way of X
The 50-week MA is intently watched as a result of it gives a reference for Bitcoin’s longer-term pattern. Earlier market cycles have proven that sustained buying and selling beneath this degree can coincide with prolonged durations of weak point. Nonetheless, momentary breaches have additionally occurred with out establishing new cycle lows.
AshCrypto outlined two doable developments following the most recent breakdown. A fast restoration above the 50-week MA throughout the present week might flip the transfer right into a bullish fakeout, doubtlessly trapping merchants who entered quick positions throughout the decline.
Conversely, one other weekly shut beneath the indicator would strengthen the bearish technical image. Below that situation, Bitcoin might face further promoting stress, with the low-$60,000 area rising as a possible draw back space.
Historic comparisons from the 2011–2012 and 2019–2020 market cycles supply some context. In each durations, Bitcoin skilled dips beneath the 50-week MA after reclaiming the indicator with out subsequently establishing new cycle lows. BTC is presently round 26% above its June 2026 low of $59,517.
BTC Technical Indicators Present Broad Promoting Stress
TradingView’s newest technical summary offers Bitcoin an general Promote ranking. Transferring averages account for a lot of the damaging readings, with 12 Promote indicators, one Impartial sign, and two Purchase indicators. Oscillators current a extra combined image, though the mixed technical evaluation stays bearish.
The combination studying stands at 13 Promote, seven Impartial, and 6 Purchase indicators. This means that the prevailing pattern stays damaging regardless of indicators that some short-term momentum indicators are approaching oversold situations.
Bitcoin (BTC) worth chart. Supply: Brave New Coin
The Relative Power Index (RSI) stands at 36, inserting it beneath the midpoint of its vary however above the traditional oversold threshold of 30. In the meantime, the Stochastic indicator has fallen to 14, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) stands at -127, and Williams P.c Vary has reached -85. All three readings point out stretched draw back momentum and generate Purchase indicators beneath the TradingView methodology.
Nonetheless, the Transferring Common Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays damaging at -1,709, sustaining a Promote sign. This divergence means that short-term promoting stress has turn into prolonged, however the broader momentum construction has but to point out a convincing restoration.
Bitcoin additionally trades beneath most of its key short- and medium-term shifting averages. The 10-day EMA stands close to $76,573, whereas the 20-day EMA is round $78,050. The 50-day EMA is roughly $79,209, inserting a number of resistance ranges above the present market worth.
The 200-day easy shifting common (SMA), close to $73,153, stays an vital longer-term reference. BTC continues to be buying and selling above this degree, leaving some room for the market to stabilize earlier than testing deeper help.
Bitcoin Worth Prediction: Key Assist and Resistance Ranges
Bitcoin’s immediate technical structure factors to the $73,300–$73,150 area as an vital help zone. This space combines the basic pivot S1 close to $73,329 with the 200-day SMA round $73,153.
A sustained transfer beneath this confluence might expose the following draw back degree close to $69,227, comparable to the basic pivot S2. Additional weak point might deliver the broader $60,000 area into focus, significantly if Bitcoin information one other weekly shut beneath the 50-week MA.
On the upside, the primary resistance space sits between roughly $76,500 and $78,500. This vary consists of the 10-day and 20-day shifting averages, which Bitcoin would want to reclaim to enhance its short-term technical construction.
A stronger restoration towards $79,200–$80,274 would encounter one other resistance cluster, together with the 50-day EMA and the basic central pivot. Reclaiming these ranges would offer further proof that patrons are regaining management.
For now, Glassnode’s derivatives knowledge, the weekly moving-average breakdown, and TradingView’s broader Promote ranking level to continued warning. A restoration above the 50-week MA would weaken the immediate bearish signal, whereas one other weekly shut beneath it could maintain decrease help ranges in focus.
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