The deal, announced December 22, comes simply 5 days after Coinbase launched prediction markets on its platform by a partnership with Kalshi.
The acquisition brings specialised expertise to Coinbase as the corporate expands past cryptocurrency buying and selling into shares, prediction markets, and different monetary merchandise. Monetary phrases weren’t disclosed, however Coinbase described the deal as “immaterial” and expects it to shut in January 2026.
Constructing the Prediction Markets Workforce
The Clearing Firm was based earlier this yr by Toni Gemayel, who beforehand served as Head of Progress at each Polymarket and Kalshi—two of the largest names in prediction markets. The startup raised $15 million in August 2025 from buyers together with Union Sq. Ventures, Haun Ventures, and notably, Coinbase Ventures.
Almost all of The Clearing Firm’s roughly 10 workers will be part of Coinbase. The workforce contains veterans from Polymarket, Kalshi, and different crypto corporations. Sam Schwartz, the previous Chief Compliance Officer at Kalshi, leads the regulatory and compliance technique for The Clearing Firm.
Supply: @coinbase
“Prediction markets work finest when robust market construction meets actual distribution,” Gemayel stated in an announcement. The acquisition offers his workforce entry to Coinbase’s huge consumer base whereas Coinbase good points experience in constructing and scaling prediction markets.
What Are Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets let individuals commerce on the outcomes of real-world occasions. Customers purchase contracts that pay $1 if an occasion occurs and $Zero if it doesn’t. Contract costs replicate what the market thinks will occur—a contract buying and selling at $0.65 suggests a 65% probability the occasion happens.
These markets cowl all the pieces from election outcomes and Federal Reserve choices to sports activities video games and cryptocurrency costs. They’ve gained consideration for typically predicting outcomes extra precisely than conventional polls, as individuals put actual cash behind their predictions.
Coinbase launched prediction markets on December 17, 2025, sourcing contracts from Kalshi. Customers can commerce these contracts in the identical app the place they purchase crypto, shares, and different belongings. The minimal commerce is simply $1, making it accessible to most customers.
The All the pieces Alternate Technique
Prediction markets are a part of Coinbase’s formidable plan to supply a number of asset courses on one platform. At a December 17 occasion referred to as “System Replace,” the corporate unveiled a number of main merchandise:
Inventory Buying and selling: A whole lot of high US shares and ETFs with zero-commission buying and selling, out there 24 hours a day, 5 days per week. Coinbase plans so as to add 1000’s extra shares in coming months.
Tokenization: A brand new platform referred to as Coinbase Tokenize will assist establishments create digital variations of conventional belongings like shares.
Enterprise Instruments: Coinbase Enterprise supplies startups and small corporations with APIs for funds, custody, buying and selling, and stablecoins.
Max Branzburg, Coinbase’s Vice President of Product, defined the imaginative and prescient: “The All the pieces Alternate is a unified platform to commerce crypto, equities, and all the pieces else individuals need to commerce. Prediction markets are an necessary a part of that platform.”
This technique places Coinbase in direct competitors with platforms like Robinhood, which has additionally launched prediction markets and inventory buying and selling alongside crypto.
A Crowded and Rising Market
The prediction markets area has exploded in 2025. Weekly buying and selling quantity throughout all platforms reached $four billion in December, with three primary rivals dominating the area.
Polymarket, constructed on the Polygon blockchain, processed over $18 billion in buying and selling quantity this yr and grew from 20,000 to almost 58,000 day by day lively customers. The corporate is looking for new funding at a valuation between $12 billion and $15 billion. In October, Intercontinental Alternate (which owns the New York Inventory Alternate) invested as much as $2 billion in Polymarket.
Kalshi operates as a regulated, centralized platform and reached an $11 billion valuation in December 2025. The corporate companions with each Coinbase and Robinhood to offer prediction market contracts.
Robinhood reported 11 billion occasion contracts traded by greater than 1 million prospects since launching on the finish of 2024, making it the corporate’s fastest-growing product line by income. The corporate plans worldwide growth for its prediction markets product.
Conventional sports activities betting corporations are additionally coming into the area. DraftKings has introduced plans to supply prediction markets with crypto-linked contracts.
Regulatory Challenges Forward
The Clearing Firm filed an software with the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee in November 2025 to change into a Derivatives Clearing Group. If permitted, it could function the primary stablecoin-native clearinghouse constructed particularly for prediction markets.
Nevertheless, the business faces regulatory uncertainty. Whereas the CFTC oversees prediction markets as derivatives on the federal stage, a number of states have filed lawsuits. Massachusetts and Nevada are amongst 9 states difficult whether or not these platforms function as unlawful sports activities betting slightly than regulated monetary markets.
Kalshi misplaced a courtroom battle in Nevada on December 16, 2025, when a federal choose rejected its request to dam state regulators from imposing cease-and-desist orders.
Regardless of these challenges, Coinbase believes regulatory readability is bettering. The corporate famous that prediction markets characterize “a pure extension of contemporary monetary infrastructure” as extra exercise strikes onto blockchain networks.
The Path Ahead
Coinbase accomplished 9 acquisitions in 2025, together with the $2.9 billion buy of derivatives alternate Deribit. The Clearing Firm marks the tenth acquisition announcement for the yr.
The corporate sees prediction markets as a strategy to diversify income past cryptocurrency buying and selling, which stays cyclical and depending on crypto costs. Bitcoin has fallen about 30% from its October highs, placing stress on Coinbase’s conventional enterprise.
By providing shares, prediction markets, derivatives, and crypto in a single platform, Coinbase goals to maintain customers engaged even when crypto markets are sluggish. The corporate’s inventory rose following the product bulletins on December 17, although it has given again good points from earlier within the yr as Bitcoin fell about 30% from October highs.
Whether or not this “All the pieces Alternate” technique succeeds will depend upon execution. Coinbase should combine The Clearing Firm easily, navigate state-level laws, and compete with established gamers—all whereas sustaining the compliance requirements which have outlined its model.
The Massive Guess on Monetary Evolution
Coinbase is betting that the way forward for finance occurs on blockchain networks, with prediction markets enjoying a key function. By buying specialised expertise by The Clearing Firm and partnering with Kalshi for instant entry, the corporate is shifting quick to assert its place on this rising market. The January 2026 deal closure will mark one other step in remodeling Coinbase from a crypto alternate right into a complete monetary platform.
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