XRP is flashing a well-recognized on-chain stress sample after slipping under its combination holder price foundation, a transfer Glassnode says has traditionally coincided with capitulation, loss realization, and a sluggish grind towards stabilization reasonably than a right away rebound.
In a Feb. 9 post on X, the on-chain analytics agency mentioned XRP “misplaced its combination holder price foundation, triggering panic promoting,” pointing to a pointy deterioration in spent output profitability. Glassnode flagged its Spent Output Revenue Ratio (SOPR) on a 7-day EMA foundation falling from 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96 “now,” including that “holders are realizing important losses” and that “on-chain profitability flipped unfavorable.”
SOPR prints under 1 are usually learn because the market spending cash at a loss on combination, a regime that may persist when sellers are compelled to exit and bids are primarily coming from consumers with longer horizons. In Glassnode’s framing, that’s what makes the present setup rhyme with a previous XRP cycle: “This setup intently resembles the Sep 2021–Might 2022 section, the place SOPR plunged to a <1 vary for extended consolidation earlier than stabilization.”
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The Feb. 9 warning isn’t an remoted name. On Feb. 1, Glassnode wrote that “The XRP Realized Price is buying and selling at $1.48,” including that “The present market construction is similar to that of April 2022.” Weeks earlier, on Jan. 19, the agency once more pointed to a 2022 echo, saying XRP’s construction “intently resembles that of February 2022,” and describing a cohort pressure the place newer consumers are accumulating under the fee foundation of longer-held provide.
Glassnode’s Jan. 19 submit additionally emphasised the behavioral aspect of that construction: because the sample persists, “psychological stress on high consumers continues to construct over time.”
XRP Capitulation Or Breakdown Subsequent?
Some market members handled the sub-1 SOPR regime much less as a purple flag and extra as a technique of transferring provide from weaker fingers to stronger ones. One reply, from the account @investorie, framed it explicitly as a bottom-building sign:
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“It is a basic capitulation sign, not a structural failure. SOPR under 1 means weak fingers are exiting at a loss. That stress will get absorbed, and traditionally it’s how sturdy bases kind, not how long-term developments finish.”
One other respondent, 0xsimba, drew a parallel to Bitcoin’s forced-selling episodes whereas echoing Glassnode’s historic comparability: “When SOPR drops under 1 for prolonged interval, ache transferring from weak to robust fingers. Sep 2021–Might 2022 precedent, Extended consolidation then restoration. Setup is forming. Sign wants affirmation.”
If Glassnode’s comparability holds, the near-term takeaway is much less a couple of single inflection level and extra about whether or not XRP stays trapped in a loss-realization regime lengthy sufficient to exhaust marginal sellers, setting the stage for stabilization solely after profitability metrics cease deteriorating and SOPR can reclaim, and maintain, the break-even line.
At press time, XRP traded at $1.4225.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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