Lekker Capital CIO Quinn Thompson says the market simply lived by means of a uncommon “positioning rinse” that has left crypto consensus going through the unsuitable path at exactly the unsuitable time. “There’s about 1, at most 2, occasions per yr the place I really feel like I’m seeing issues at 180 diploma odds with the crypto twitter consensus,” Thompson wrote on October 20, pointing to prior episodes in September 2023, September 2024, and February 2025 as related inflection factors for sentiment. “I’m utilizing the under three tweets to summarize consensus,” he added, linking to contemporaneous bearish posts from @qwqiao, @blknoiz06, and @cburniske to border the prevailing temper.
Why The Crypto Bull Run Extremely Probably Isn’t Over
Thompson’s core claim is simple and intentionally contrarian: the October 10 open-interest flush was not a purpose to show medium-term bearish on Bitcoin and Ethereum, however a capitulation that usually precedes robust ahead returns. “Present setup for BTC and ETH is uncommon – largest positioning rinse in historical past of crypto whereas standing on doorstep of macro goldilocks. 10/10 liquidation cleared extra leverage in $ and % of OI than total Jan–Apr ’25 interval. Alternative forward is much like pre-Trump victory ’24,” he mentioned.
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The message will not be a victory lap, he emphasised: “It’s foolish to even should say this however the referenced tweets usually are not about being unsuitable or proper – merely references to sentiment… Generally it’s higher to look at extra, love extra and say much less.”
The positioning argument rests on a easy historic heuristic: promoting “after” a deep deleveraging occasion is often a poor commerce as soon as compelled sellers have been flushed. “Anybody wish to run the maths on what share of -30–40% open curiosity crypto liquidation occasions was it a good suggestion to get bearish AFTER it occurred?” Thompson requested
He made his speculation express: “Getting medium timeframe bearish, e.g. 40/80/120 days ahead, after a big scale liquidation occasion is a poor danger/reward the overwhelming majority of the time, particularly whether it is of the magnitude of the 10/10 occasion.” Market veteran Alex Krüger and Framework Ventures co-founder Vance Spencer every replied “0%,” a succinct endorsement of that probabilistic view.
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Past positioning, Thompson ties the crypto setup to a macro backdrop he repeatedly characterizes as “goldilocks.” In late summer season, he and Felix Jauvin mentioned gold’s bull case on Ahead Steering; that thesis, Thompson says, crystallized when a broadly circulated picture confirmed Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Narendra Modi clasping fingers on the Shanghai Cooperation Group summit.
“When this image leaked it was nail within the coffin and the obvious purchase gold sign you might get after its 4–5 month consolidation,” he wrote, arguing that Bitcoin now sits in a similar posture after a ~10-month consolidation.
“Mainly getting the identical factor now… Don’t miss the forest for the timber,” pointing to Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong’s policy-push put up. “Heading to D.C. tomorrow, excited to roll up our sleeves with key resolution makers to get market construction to @POTUS’s desk”—as a part of a constructive structural backdrop for US market plumbing.
In the event you watch @ForwardGuidance, you’ll recall @fejau_inc and my gold rants again in late summer season. When this image leaked it was nail within the coffin and the obvious purchase gold sign you might get after its 4-5 month consolidation.
Mainly getting the identical factor now after a… pic.twitter.com/ry29kkKocz
— Quinn Thompson (@qthomp) October 22, 2025
At press time, BTC traded at $109,101.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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