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Bitcoin could also be gearing up for a renewed surge, however in keeping with dealer Josh Olszewicz, the bullish setup is strolling a macroeconomic tightrope—and one flawed transfer may ship the whole lot tumbling. In his June 16 “Macro Monday” replace, Olszewicz laid out a broad-based technical and macroeconomic case for why BTC is holding agency close to all-time highs, whereas warning that the market’s resilience is underpinned by a single, fragile macro issue: liquidity.
$150Ok Bitcoin? Solely If Powell Doesn’t Pull The Plug
“Crypto clearly doesn’t care. Legacy clearly doesn’t care,” Olszewicz said, referring to the continued rally in threat belongings regardless of no charge cuts from the Federal Reserve. “Each of these are mooning with out charges coming down.”
The important thing, in keeping with him, lies within the quiet resurgence of world liquidity. Whereas the Fed has not but pivoted to easing, and markets are pricing near-zero odds of cuts within the June or July FOMC conferences, US and international liquidity metrics have began to show upward. Olszewicz particularly pointed to reverse repo operations and the Treasury General Account (TGA) as essential levers.
“When reverse repo drains, it helps liquidity. When TGA spends down, it helps liquidity. Proper now, neither is doing a lot, however each are trending in the fitting path,” he mentioned. “And that’s sufficient to maintain threat belongings buoyant.”
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The present setup, Olszewicz argued, bears little resemblance to the laborious tightening regimes of 2018 or 2022. Globally, charge hike cycles are easing or reversing altogether. “It has been liquidity going up,” he emphasised. “If liquidity falls, if charges go up, then I’d count on crypto to have a tough time.”
For Bitcoin, which stays pinned close to its all-time excessive, the construction seems more and more constructive. The dealer famous that BTC has to this point resisted any significant breakdowns and continues to reclaim key technical ranges. “We’re hovering at all-time highs. That’s what you wish to see,” he mentioned. “You wish to see us simply regularly battle off these sell-offs. It’s not a great look to lose highs shortly.”
From a technical standpoint, Olszewicz recognized $97,980 as the important thing draw back stage to observe if Bitcoin does falter. However on the upside, he sees clear potential for continuation: “I like $122Ok as a pit cease, after which ultimately we’ll settle in in all probability someplace within the $150Ok vary if we actually get going.”
However that path is much from assured. The wildcard in Olszewicz’s framework is US liquidity—a metric he calculates because the Federal Reserve stability sheet minus the TGA and reverse repo. It’s rising, however solely modestly. “We’re seeing liquidity begin to tick up once more again to the prime quality,” he mentioned. “Nothing tremendous spectacular simply but, however that is very useful—particularly for alts, clearly for BTC, however that is what alts want.”
And that’s the catch. If liquidity stalls or reverses—whether or not resulting from an surprising Fed tightening transfer, a bounce in TGA balances round tax deadlines, or a reactivation of reverse repo drains—then your complete crypto rally may very well be put in danger. “If this goes to zero,” Olszewicz warned in regards to the reverse repo facility, “there could also be liquidity points after which they could have to reinstate QE.”
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He additionally flagged August as a vital juncture, with a attainable US debt ceiling crunch looming. “Simply take note of what’s occurring going into August, assuming the debt ceiling isn’t raised,” he mentioned. “Larger the debt, greater the deficit, the extra traders transfer to fastened provide belongings. That’s higher for crypto.”
However none of this ensures a clear transfer to $150Ok. As Olszewicz famous, we’re nonetheless ready on one important domino to fall: inflation stability. Whereas “true inflation” knowledge from impartial trackers is hovering within the low 2s, Fed-preferred metrics like CPI and PCE stay risky. For Powell to behave, the info wants to point out three to 6 months of sustained, flatline 2% inflation. “You do not need 2.three one month, 2.6 the following month, 2.4, 2.8,” Olszewicz mentioned. “You desire a steady 2%.”
Till then, the Fed is more likely to maintain agency. However the longer Bitcoin maintains momentum with out a charge lower, the extra market psychology begins to shift—towards a situation the place easing turns into a bonus, not a prerequisite.
“If we’re doing nicely with out charges coming down, why are we rooting for charges to come back down?” Olszewicz requested. The reply, for Bitcoin, might come right down to only one macro metric: liquidity. If it holds, $150,000 remains to be very a lot in play. But when it snaps—so may the cycle.
At press time, BTC traded at $105,325.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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