Bitcoin is sitting on a technical ledge that might determine whether or not value makes a brand new all-time excessive or unwinds sharply into the $80,000s, in response to veteran dealer Josh Olszewicz (CarpeNoctom). “BTC complicated iHS brewing within the megaphone,” he posted on October 30, 2025, including in a follow-up: “Additionally this brewing, not nice.”
The Bullish Case For Bitcoin
Olszewicz is tracking two buildings. The primary, on the 6-hour timeframe, reveals BTC buying and selling inside a broadening “megaphone” sample that has contained value since July. The megaphone is outlined by rising dotted resistance strains above and falling dotted assist strains under. The higher boundary extends by way of roughly $126,000 to $128,000. The decrease boundary widens down towards $105,400 and $103,800.
Inside that vary, Bitcoin put in a pointy spike above $126,000 in early October, then offered off violently, dropping under $106,000s with a wick towards roughly $102,000. That bounce didn’t recuperate the prior vary. As a substitute, value stalled underneath a horizontal resistance shelf round $116,000–$117,000. Olszewicz sketches a yellow projected path that suggests a short-term bounce from just below $111,000 again in the direction of $116,000. That path suggests tried reduction, not confirmed bullish continuation.
Associated Studying
Provided that Bitcoin can reclaim the $116,000–$117,000 zone does a transfer towards the higher resistance band come again into play. In that situation, value might prolong towards $128,000, print a brand new all-time excessive, and doubtlessly restart a broader recovery phase.
The Bearish Case For Bitcoin
The second chart is the place the draw back threat accelerates. On the 1-day timeframe, Olszewicz maps a head-and-shoulders high with a rising neckline. The left shoulder topped within the $118,000 space, the top reached roughly $126,200, and the appropriate shoulder once more failed close to $116,000. The neckline is drawn as an ascending dotted assist line that now sits within the $105,000–$106,000 zone. He highlights $107,316.81 as the important thing breakdown stage.
If that neckline breaks decisively, the chart applies a regular measured transfer. The gap from the top all the way down to the neckline is projected decrease. Olszewicz plots that extension right into a teal goal zone and marks intermediate and full goals at $93,963.81 (the 1.618 extension) and $87,652.27 (the two.Zero extension). In different phrases, a clear every day breakdown by way of $107,316 opens a path first towards the mid-$90,000s after which towards roughly $87,600.
Associated Studying
Above spot, resistance stays layered. The 0.5 retracement of the prior impulse is labeled at $115,486, and the 1.Zero retracement — successfully the earlier swing excessive — is marked at $124,477.
Structurally, Bitcoin is now boxed between provide within the $116,000 area and that neckline helps round $105,000–$106,000. Olszewicz’s message is that bulls should still be making an attempt to kind a “complicated inverse head-and-shoulders within the megaphone,” however the lively every day head-and-shoulders high is “not nice.” A decisive lack of the neckline might verify the bearish structure and put $93,963.81 and $87,652.27 on the desk.
At press time, BTC traded at $110,096.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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