Lekker Capital CIO Quinn Thompson argues on X that collapsing mining economics, mixed with a rising shift by public miners towards AI and high-performance compute, may flip company BTC treasuries right into a recent supply of market provide.
“A big underappreciated headwind for Bitcoin is the catastrophe that which is mining economics. The one means this heals is thru a decline in hashrate, which is being spearheaded by the AI compute first movers like CORZ, WULF, CIFR, IREN, and many others.,” Thompson wrote.
The chart Thompson shared, frames the issue visually. It exhibits mixture bitcoin holdings throughout main listed miners climbing sharply by means of 2024 and 2025 earlier than rolling over in 2026. Thompson’s argument isn’t that the AI pivot is bearish in structural phrases.
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Quite the opposite, decrease hashrate and fewer uneconomic competitors may enhance mining business well being over time. His level is that the transition itself is dear, and that capex-heavy AI buildouts could pressure miners to liquidate BTC that had beforehand been handled as strategic treasury.
“Whereas useful to long-term well being and sustainability of the community economics, it presents a dilemma for costs within the near-term as Bitcoin miners maintain virtually 80,000 Bitcoin on their steadiness sheets. As these firms pivot away from BTC mining, they 1) want capital to fund the AI buildout capex necessities and a couple of) haven’t any cause to carry any BTC on their steadiness sheet (not that they need to have earlier than both),” he argued.
Bitcoin Miners Pivot To AI
The 2025 filings and public data make that argument extra concrete. Core Scientific’s fourth-quarter outcomes confirmed the enterprise combine tilting away from mining and towards AI-related infrastructure: self-mining income fell to $42.2 million from $79.9 million a 12 months earlier, whereas colocation income rose to $31.three million from $8.5 million. Administration mentioned the decline in hosted mining mirrored the “continued strategic shift” to high-density colocation. For full-year 2025, Core generated $402.5 million of proceeds from promoting digital property and ended the 12 months with 2,537 BTC on its steadiness sheet.
TeraWulf affords a good cleaner read-through. The corporate mentioned that in 2025 it “solidified HPC internet hosting as its major development engine,” signed greater than $12.Eight billion in long-term buyer contracts, and constructed a platform with 522 crucial IT megawatts underneath contract. But the legacy mining enterprise was nonetheless being monetized as that buildout took form: fourth-quarter digital asset income was $26.1 million, versus $9.7 million in HPC lease income, and the corporate’s year-end digital asset rollforward exhibits 1,496 BTC mined, 1,500 BTC disposed of, and solely three BTC left on the steadiness sheet at Dec. 31, 2025.
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Cipher and IREN present two different variations of the identical development. Cipher mentioned it elevated its give attention to HPC in 2025 and signed two HPC tenants for a mixed 600 MW of knowledge heart capability. It additionally bought bitcoin for roughly $214.7 million in the course of the 12 months. By year-end, Cipher had categorised $94.9 million of Black Pearl mining rigs as held on the market after signing a sublease to transition the location to an HPC tenant. IREN, against this, has already taken the treasury problem largely off the desk: with roughly 99,900 GPUs put in or on order as of Dec. 31, 2025, it mentioned it “usually liquidate[s] all of the Bitcoin we mine each day” and due to this fact held no bitcoin on its steadiness sheet at year-end.
MARA issues for a distinct cause. It isn’t but as far alongside as Core, TeraWulf, Cipher or IREN in changing mining websites right into a full AI/HPC enterprise, although it had deployed its first ten AI racks at Granbury by November 2025 and later introduced a Starwood partnership for AI and HPC infrastructure. However MARA is the treasury heavyweight within the group, and its personal 2025 disclosures moved in Thompson’s course: the corporate mentioned it began selling bitcoin within the second half of 2025, bought about 4,076 BTC for $413.1 million in the course of the 12 months, and nonetheless ended 2025 with roughly 53,822 BTC.
That’s the stress in Thompson’s thesis. A miner-led shift into AI can scale back hashrate strain and enhance the long-run economics of bitcoin mining. However the bridge from mining to AI is capital-intensive, and the 2025 filings present that bridge is already being funded with BTC gross sales, miner disposals and web site conversions. For bitcoin, which means an business adjustment which may be constructive later can nonetheless look like overhang now.
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $72,322.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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