A extensively shared seasonality snapshot is making the rounds forward of month-end: a Coinglass warmth map of Bitcoin’s month-to-month returns, reposted by dealer Daan Crypto Trades. The desk spans 2013–2025 and exhibits November because the statistical outlier in Bitcoin’s calendar—each for eye-popping features and for sharp drawdowns in sure years.
Bitcoin November Preview
“November is Bitcoin’s greatest month based mostly on historic efficiency. By far,” Daan wrote on X, pointing to a mean November change of +46.02% throughout the dataset. That determine is visibly distorted by November 2013’s +449.35% surge, the only largest month-to-month transfer on the board. He added: “The typical acquire over all these months is +46.02%. However that is closely skewed by a single month-to-month acquire in November 2013. Bitcoin went up +449.35%!! that month.”
The uncooked counts again up the repute with out the hyperbole. Out of the 12 Novembers listed (2013–2024), Eight completed inexperienced—2013 (+449.35%), 2014 (+12.82%), 2015 (+19.27%), 2016 (+5.42%), 2017 (+53.48%), 2020 (+42.95%), 2023 (+8.81%), and 2024 (+37.29%)—whereas Four have been unfavorable—2018 (-36.57%), 2019 (-17.27%), 2021 (-7.11%), and 2022 (-16.23%).
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The median November change sits at +10.82%, a extra conservative central tendency that dampens the 2013 impact. Excluding 2013 totally, the straightforward common for November drops to roughly +9.35% throughout the remaining 11 years, underscoring how one month can skew mean-based seasonality.
Context from the broader desk issues. November’s common is the very best of any month on Coinglass’s grid, forward of October’s +20.30% common, whereas December exhibits a much more blended profile with a +4.75% common however a -3.22% median—an imbalance according to outlier-driven months.
September, lengthy maligned by merchants, retains a unfavorable common (-3.08%) over the total interval. The 2024 row itself captures the push-and-pull of this cycle’s narrative: double-digit features in February, March, Might, October, and November, offset by significant drawdowns in April, June, and August, and a unfavorable December print to shut the yr (-2.85%).
Classes From Prior Cycles
Daan’s framing extends past easy seasonality. “November & December is when the 2013, 2017 & 2021 cycles topped out. It’s additionally the place the 2018 & 2022 cycles bottomed out,” he famous. That commentary strains up with the historic inflection factors most market contributors keep in mind: the late-2013 mania and subsequent crash, the December 2017 peak, the November 2021 all-time high, and the December 2018 and November 2022 washouts.
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The Coinglass grid can not timestamp intramonth highs or lows, however the clustering of main pivots into the ultimate two months of the yr is according to the market’s folklore and with the returns sample that exhibits each exceptionally sturdy up months and among the cycle’s most punishing down months on this window.
The sensible takeaway—once more in Daan’s phrases—isn’t categorical bullishness, however regime threat: “All in all, an eventful final 2 months of the yr typically talking. Whether or not it’s on the bullish or bearish aspect, volatility and large market pivots have been the theme into the top of the yr.” The warmth map helps that characterization.
November’s distribution spans the widest extremes on report—from +449.35% on the prime to -36.57% on the draw back—with a two-thirds hit fee for inexperienced months and a median acquire within the low double digits. December, in contrast, has produced each cycle tops and cycle bottoms regardless of a modest common, a reminder that common and median statistics can obscure the trail threat that defines Bitcoin’s fourth quarter.
Seasonality isn’t future, and the pattern is proscribed. Nonetheless, the data-backed message is obvious: as November approaches, Bitcoin’s historical pattern has been much less about quiet pattern continuation and extra about variance—the type that has marked each euphoric blow-offs and capitulation lows.
At press time, BTC traded at $114,487.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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