Market professional Sam Daodu has launched a brand new April outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), flagging geopolitical developments and macroeconomic forces because the decisive elements for the place costs could go subsequent.
Daodu’s notice comes after Bitcoin bumped into resistance simply above roughly $72,000 and amid a market setting that has produced the asset’s first consecutive quarterly losses since 2022.
Bitcoin Faces Uncommon April
Daodu pointed to Bitcoin’s historic tendency to complete April within the black: since 2013, the token has closed the month greater 9 occasions out of 13, a 69% win charge.
On paper, April appears to be like beneficiant — the common return sits at 10.7% — however that imply is skewed by a handful of outsized years (2013, 2018, 2019, and 2020), every with positive aspects above 28%. Strip out these excessive outliers, and the common April return falls to a subdued 0.7%.
Extra consultant measures present Bitcoin’s median April gain at 7.1%, with the very best April on file in 2013 (+36.8%) and the worst in 2022 (−17.2%). These historic ranges, Daodu says, show how a lot April outcomes rely on the broader macro backdrop.
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What makes April 2026 uncommon, Daodu argues, is the dominance of exterior macro and geopolitical drivers that have been largely absent in prior years. The continuing US–Iran battle has saved oil costs elevated — above $100 since early March — and the Federal Reserve (Fed) has revised its 2026 inflation forecast upward to 2.7%.
These developments have knocked again expectations for near‑term rate cuts and left markets braced for greater charges into the second quarter. Taken collectively, tighter liquidity and heightened geopolitical threat create a harder setting for threat property, together with BTC.
Below these situations, Daodu warns, the standard early‑April dip and subsequent rebound are not assured. Reasonably, three key components will decide Bitcoin’s future.
Whether or not oil drops beneath $90 per barrel, whether or not financial expectations ease, and whether or not the US-Iran ceasefire persists and results in an enduring deal.
Three Potential Paths
Daodu lays out three worth eventualities to quantify how these outcomes may play out. In his bullish case, a real ceasefire coupled with oil costs falling beneath $90 would considerably relieve macro strain. That aid, he says, may enable Bitcoin to clear resistance above $75,000 and propel a run towards $80,000.
Progress on the CLARITY Act — legislative motion anticipated to be marked up in late April — would add gasoline to that rally by enhancing regulatory readability for digital property.
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His base case envisions a extra muted month. Persistent tax‑associated promoting in early April may cap positive aspects and preserve BTC buying and selling between about $68,000 and $76,000. And not using a clear catalyst, corresponding to an finish to the battle, Bitcoin would probably consolidate in that band.
The bearish state of affairs entails a breakdown of the ceasefire and renewed escalation. In that occasion, Daodu says Bitcoin may lose its close by help round $69,000, set off liquidations of leveraged positions, and see brief‑time period holders exit.
That strain may ship BTC towards $65,000 or decrease; the professional notes that Normal Chartered has warned of a deeper hunch towards $50,000 if macro situations deteriorate considerably.
Featured picture from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
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